Public beta: Affordable Forever is live for early use and feedback. Building dates and purchase-right screens are preservation signals, not automatic legal determinations; check the source and protection details on each page.
Affordable Forever Research · Project 01

The 30-Year Clock

New York City's LIHTC Preservation Pipeline

How many properties are reaching a LIHTC preservation milestone, where are they, who owns them, what other protections appear to exist — and which buildings deserve deeper research before tenants face a crisis?

The question

Public housing data can identify a large cohort of LIHTC properties approaching a projected 30-year screening milestone. But the screening date is not automatically the controlling legal expiration date. This project turns that limitation into the research design: use the date to find the buildings, then investigate what actually governs them.

Urgency without overclaiming: a projected screening year is not a reason to tell tenants their affordability definitely ends on that date. It is a reason to verify the documents, identify other protections, learn the owner's preservation plans and organize early enough to matter.

What we will measure

  • Properties and total units by projected screening year.
  • 0–2, 2–5 and 5–10 year preservation-research windows.
  • For-profit, nonprofit and unknown ownership.
  • LIHTC credit type where identifiable.
  • Other active federal subsidies identified in the source data.
  • NYC Council, Assembly and State Senate geography.
  • Later local/state affordability layers as the Protection Stack is built.
  • Verified regulatory expiration and preservation/resyndication status for researched properties.

What this report will not claim

It will not equate the NHPD-calculated LIHTC end date with a legal expiration. It will not describe every unit in a property as currently income-restricted solely because the property has LIHTC history. It will not assume that “no other federal subsidy identified” means “no other protection exists.”

Outputs

Flagship reportFindings, maps, methodology, policy recommendations and case studies.
District briefsCouncil, Assembly and Senate snapshots generated from the same underlying research.
Organizer watchlistExplainable preservation-priority signals for building outreach and document research.
Data notesShort findings that can be updated as the verified-research layer grows.

The policy question

If government can identify preservation pressure years before a covenant reaches a critical milestone, what responsibilities should follow? The report will examine early notice, tenant purchase rights, preservation/acquisition capital, administrative transparency and permanent affordability requirements.